Electric load forecasting: Literature survey and classification of methods

A review and categorization of electric load forecasting techniques is presented. A wide range of methodologies and models for forecasting are given in the literature. These techniques are classi®ed here into nine categories: (1) multiple regression, (2) exponential smoothing, (3) iterative reweighted least-squares, (4) adaptive load forecasting, (5) stochastic time series, (6) ARMAX models based on genetic algorithms, (7) fuzzy logic, (8) neural networks and (9) expert systems. The methodology for each category is brie ̄y described, the advantages and disadvantages discussed, and the pertinent literature reviewed. Conclusions and comments are made on future research directions.